Monday 14 April 2014

The rise and rise of the Greens?

A new Nielsen poll is out today, with pretty unremarkable results for the two party preferred of 52-48 to Labor. The polls have been around there or a bit closer for a while now so those results aren't surprising. However there's something very interesting that a casual glance wouldn't pick up.


Top left are the primary votes as compared to the Sept election 2013. Despite Labor now leading on the two party preferred, Labor's primary vote is only one point up on it's Sept performance; in other words Labor is virtually no more popular than it was last Sept. So what gives?

For a start the Lieberal primary vote has crashed by 6 points from last Sept, from 46 to 40. That's a huge crash after such a short space of time. Hence the collapse of the Lieberal two party preferred vote. 

It's the Greens that are the big surprise. Yes there are margins of error in every poll, but a jump from 9% last Sept to 17% now? If the poll is an outlier it's certainly at the extreme outlier end. As the poll is, it appears the Greens are on the rise in Australia.

I bloody hope so.  

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