NSW election minus one week - CSG & electricity sale backlash

It continues to look like the Lieberals are going to win overall unfortunately, but amidst it all are some very surprising stats coming out in polling. There appears to be a large backlash against CSG mining and the proposed sale of New South Wales electricity network. Most notably Ballina on the north coast (wonderful place Ballina).

Ballina has been held by the Lieberal coalition (the Nationals and Country parties) since 1927, and in the last election in 2011 the Nationals secured a 25% lead in winning. This time however, it's looking like it may well fall to Labor. 

If so that would be a huge slap in the face for the Lieberals. To lose a secure seat after holding it for 90 years or so speaks volumes for the issues not being addressed. Even though the Lieberals may well win the state, they will have no choice but to take a long hard look as to why they lost Ballina.

The Nationals won Ballina on a 25 per cent margin in 2011, and National and Country parties have retained the seat since 1927. 

But Thursday's polling shows Labor with a two-party preferred vote of 52 per cent, ahead of the Nationals' 48 per cent. 

Sitting MP Don Page's retirement after 27 years, controversy over the Baird Government's urban development plans for Byron Bay, and anti-CSG sentiment are driving a fierce three-way contest. 

ReachTel's James Stewart said Labor's primary vote had increased significantly to 30 per cent, but its campaign needed to manage the issue of "green bleed". The Greens' primary vote was 20 per cent. 

"Labor is incredibly reliant on preferences from the Greens to get across the line in Ballina," he said. 

There were strong similarities with the Queensland seat of Mount Cootha, where Labor produced an upset win after striking preference deals with the Greens, urging voters to put the Nationals last and to number every box to allocate preferences, he said. 

In NSW, the Greens have agreed to preference Labor on how-to-vote cards in 23 lower house seats, including the North Coast electorates which Labor is targeting heavily in its campaign. more