Even New Zealand Prime Minister John Key predicted the demise of the Abbott gov 18 months ago on a visit here. Yes, just one visit was enough for Team Key to decide this gov was incompetent and would fail. So much for trans-Tasman relations :s How are they going to get on after that being splashed all over the main stream media here?
Why? The collective analysis of Key and his ministers, which came together over glasses of red that evening in Sydney, was two-fold. First, they saw that the Abbott government had no reform narrative. It had slogans, but no persuasive case.
Second, they concluded that it had no "political architecture" to manage the government. They were "puzzled about the absence of an architecture for conducting the business of government – how to take the backbench along with the executive, how to reach out to the crossbenches, how to connect with key constituencies", says a participant.
A glaring example the Kiwis remarked on – how could a political party whose support base is 50 per cent female have but one female member of cabinet?
In sum, Abbott was not equipped to carry the people or manage the government. These fundamental failures fated the government to fail.
More personally for me though is the reasons why Abbott wrecked marriage equality yet again. Politics. Simply, he's trying to hang on to even get to the next election, let alone win it. He had to satisfy his right wing bigots who support him by killing it off.
It was obvious to an experienced overseas leadership team a year and a half ago, and it's now glaringly, distressingly plain to all. Read more
Yes folks, it's even worse than we thought. It boils down to this. David and I cannot get married because of Tony Abbott's political ass. Our love reduced to Abbott Canberra power plays.
There was no due process on gay marriage. Abbott did not consult his cabinet, rode roughshod over the Liberal party room's sensibilities, rushed to a Coalition room discussion, and led the party to confused non-decisions on future process.
None of this mattered to Abbott. Why? Because all he wanted was to kill any prospect that same-sex marriage would come to a free vote on the floor of the Parliament. That done, to hell with the rest of it.
That's why, two days later, his cabinet ministers were out in public arguing with each other on referendum versus plebiscites, George Brandis lecturing Scott Morrison, conducting government by Sky News.
Did it seem odd that a Prime Minister would corral his party to block same-sex marriage, putting the government on the opposite side of two-thirds of the electorate? It is odd for a Prime Minister who wants to win an election to wilfully alienate most of the country. But winning the election is a second-order issue for Abbott. His first priority is surviving long enough to even make it to election day.
The whole point of Abbott's gay marriage gambit was to appease the conservative side of his caucus. He sees this as vital to his survival as leader. Remember that the February spill motion was moved by two of the party's right-wing conservatives. The outcome on gay marriage this week may drive much of the public to despair, but it satisfies Abbott's right and protects his flank. That's the hard calculus that drove the process.
This means that the next spill effort against Abbott won't come from the right. If it comes, it'll have to be from the left of the Liberal caucus. Read more
Deserving of a six spewer that one.
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