Monday, 18 May 2015

Ipsos poll does it again - way off mark

Remember back in Feb and this Ipsos poll came out with a 51/49 close result to Labor, but the best Lieberal result for some time? It turned out to be an outlier and not at all representative of all the other polling being done. The notion that suddenly thousands and thousands of people had suddenly changed their mind about the Lieberals was a hopeful fallacy.

As it has done again in it's latest poll, putting the Lieberals and Labor 50/50 for the first time in ages and ages. My prediction is that this again will be an outlier as none of the other polls are saying anything like that. There's something weird going on with their methodology I reckon.

There's also the frantic misleading media reporting, thus.


Note how it says in the heading "post budget polls". Note how it says in the text of the story "a post budget poll". Oh FFS. .....

Even a cursory look at the last four post budget polls shows that all the other polls except for this one particular Ipsos one show nothing has changed post budget. Even the dead cat isn't bouncing. 
 


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