Sunday, 14 October 2018

Gov behind in Wentworth by-election (video)

Ex Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull's old seat of Wentworth is facing a by-election, after he was so unceremoniously turfed from the prime ministership by his own party and he spat the dummy and quit parliament altogether. 

Not that it was any great loss as far as I'm concerned. The guy was a spineless lech who clung to power by any means he could, usually putting the people and their well being last. The whole marriage equality postal survey debacle for example.

Yet being the member for Wentworth he was apparently very popular with the actual people of Wentworth, who have apparently been fuming over how he was toppled as prime minister.

Wentworth voters also, despite being wealthy overall, have very leftist policies that they care about. In fact climate change is the most important issue for them, yet they now have a Liberal party prime minister who denies climate change and is in love with coal. Wentworth also had the highest Yes vote for marriage equality in the country, which Mad Morrison campaigned strongly against and even walked out on the last division in disgust.

Turnbull held the seat for quite some years and built up the vote because he was popular within the electorate (go figure) to the point that the seat is held by the Liberals by a massive 17% two party preferred. 
Kerryn Phelps

Then came the knifing of Turnbull, with a lame assed unpopular Liberal party character (Sharma) to replace Turnbull. Labor is also running a candidate, which to me seems a bit unusual in what until now has been a very safe Liberal seat. A popular local independent Kerryn Phelps has also entered the race and is polling very strongly; in a long term same sex relationship and long time advocate of the LGBT.

Less than a week to voting, a new poll out will send a deep shiver down the spine of the federal gov:
In the Voter Choice Project poll, Mr Sharma received 38.8 per cent of the likely first preference vote in comparison to Dr Phelps' 23.5 per cent, the projected two party preferred figures showed the independent candidate pulling ahead to 55.4 per cent to his 44.6 per cent.

Researcher Raphaella Kathryn Crosby said the results revealed that Mr Sharma would lose the by-election if the Liberal primary vote was not over 40 per cent.

"It is unclear whether it will be Sharma vs Phelps or Sharma vs Murray, but it doesn't matter because whoever ends up [against Sharma] will win," Ms Crosby said.

If Dr Phelps "survives the preference count, she will win over Dave Sharma", Ms Crosby said.

 Dr Phelps said she found the results "heartening" and said she stood for "strong policies the people of Wentworth actually care about".

"Like climate change action, like the treatment of asylum seekers, supporting small businesses, an economy considerate of all people, social justice issues and of course the religious freedoms bill," she said.

"There's a mood for change." ABC
So what have the Liberals got in response to this? Basically vote for them to avoid instability. If they lose the seat they'll no longer have a parliamentary majority and will have to rely on cross bench support to govern. 
Liberal "stability"?

But Mr Morrison claimed a Liberal Party loss in next weekend's Wentworth by-election would cause "unnecessary instability" because his party would no longer hold the majority of federal seats. 

"Liberals who are thinking about voting for the independent [candidate] should think about that very carefully, because she's [Dr Phelps] clearly running strongly second," he said. 

"[If] she continues in that place, she can still be a long way behind in primaries … [and then] come over the top and win that by-election. ABC
That's it? That's all  they've got left? No policies? Just vote for us because we'll be stable? After all that's happened over the last 5 years of this gov, having the gov tell us to vote for them for "stability" is the stuff of Monty Python! 

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