HIV epidemic? - Eastern Europe and Russia

It is as I predicted; gays in Russia will go underground and have little access to HIV diagnosis or treatment. I predict an explosion of HIV in Russia in the wake of it's anti-gay laws and hatred of the LGBT, but no one will know. There'll be no statistics available as they've all gone underground and won't talk to people. Also, I predict that given the homophobia is Russia that it's highly likely that some guys who live straight lives will be also having unsafe sex with men; and there we have the crossover of HIV to the straight community. 

Now, The European AIDS Clinical Society has opened it's discourse in the 14th European AIDS conference, not with a namby pamby tip toeing around the issue like the IOC and Olympic athletes have, but with a full on lambasting of the Russian gov's new laws.

The bill also outlaws the “obtrusive spreading of information about non-traditional sexual relationships that may arouse interest in such relationships”.

Russian activists and non-governmental organisations have protested that the law could be used against any sort of HIV prevention activities targeting men who have sex with men.

“We are concerned that these provisions not only affect basic human rights, but also result in harmful public health policy since they add to the already-existing barriers related to HIV prevention, diagnosis, access and retention in care”, EACS stated. “The legal framework in States should do everything to reduce stigmatisation.”

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“Instead of trying to keep people alive using scientific evidence, the Russian government is using church morality. These laws keep people silent, and silence is still death”, he went on. more

The most effective thing against HIV is education; what's involved with safe sex, bla. How can people there get this information when it's illegal to disseminate it?

Not to be outdone, in the opening address of the conference, Professor Michel Kazatchkine warned that Eastern Europe is facing an epidemic of HIV (among other diseases):      

Professor Kazatchkine, the former Executive Director of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, gave a keynote presentation on the need for action in Eastern Europe. 

“This is the region where the epidemic continues to grow,” he said. “The estimated number of people with HIV has grown by 140% in the past ten years, and it is the only region of the world where AIDS deaths continue to grow,” he went on to say. “Only 30% of people in need of treatment are accessing it,” he said, noting that coverage would be lower than 15% under new WHO guidelines recommending treatment for all people with CD4 cell counts below 500. 

HIV prevalence is as high as 70% among people who inject drugs in Azerbaijan and in six countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia more than 50% of people who inject drugs are estimated to be infected with HIV. “The prevalence of hepatitis C is even higher among people who inject drugs – between 60 and 80% in some countries – but access to treatment is basically zero,” Professor Kazatchkine told a press conference. 

Nevertheless, around 30% of HIV infections in the region are attributable to sex between men and women, chiefly between male drug users and women, while around 40% of infections in the region are described as `exposure route unknown`. This categorisation is likely to disclose high levels of unreported transmission between men. 

Why would men who have sex with men or people who inject drugs disclose how they had become infected with HIV in a region where both behaviours are highly stigmatised, if not criminalised, he asked. 

“The data we have is only as robust as the surveillance systems, and the social contexts that produce them,” he said. more