All the polls I've seen lately are pretty much 52/48 to Labor. Morgan however has an increase in the Labor vote on it's latest polling, Morgan putting it down to Shorten taking the initiative on gay marriage.
“The ‘Budget Bounce’ for the Coalition Government has proved short-lived with the ALP 53% (up 2% since May 16/17, 2015) regaining a clear advantage over the L-NP 47% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten promised to introduce a private member’s bill to Parliament to allow for a redefinition of marriage under Australian law.Abbott seems to be linking gay marriage conditionally to his being able to pass his unfair budget first however. Typical.
“Shorten believes the definition of marriage should be broadened to include gay and lesbian couples following the results of the Irish referendum last week in which Irish electors decided by a clear margin (Yes 62% cf. No 38%) to change the Irish definition of marriage to include same-sex relationships. A Roy Morgan poll conducted in 2011 found an even larger majority of Australians (68%) support the right of gay people to get married compared to only 30% who think they shouldn’t have this right.
“In addition, other Roy Morgan research shows an increasing majority of Australians believe homosexual couples should be allowed to adopt children. In 2010 just under half of Australians (48%) agreed homosexual couples should be allowed to adopt children and this figure has increased steadily each year since – to 51% in 2011, 56% in 2012, 58% in 2013 and 61% in 2014.
“There have already been several attempts to legislate for same-sex marriage in Australia, including an attempt by the Australian Capital Territory to change the definition of marriage in the ACT which was ultimately reversed by the High Court on constitutional grounds following a challenge by the Federal Government which wanted to prevent a multitude of definitions of marriage being introduced in Australia.
“Although Shorten introduced his same-sex marriage bill to the Lower House of Parliament today, less than half the chamber was in attendance with only a handful of Government MPs there to witness Shorten introducing his bill. Shorten’s private member’s bill is the third same-sex marriage bill before Parliament along with similar bills by Liberal Democrat Senator David Leyonhjelm and a Greens bill also before the Senate. more