Monday, 7 November 2016

Polls break for Hillary - Hispanic turnout not predicted


The Australian Bludgertrack polling of the US election has broken for Hilliary sharply. Interestingly, the not predicted voter turnout hasn't been showing up in pre-election polling, as I suspected.

The Republicans may well learn that to disenfranchise whole sections of the population was a really bad idea.
As Democrats find encouragement from early voting patterns, opinion polls also appear to be turning back in Hillary Clinton's favour. 

There now appears to be something of a breakout in Hillary Clinton’s favour on the presidential tracker, which is showing up clearly in the trend chart below. This has caused her razor thin lead on recent readings of the electoral college projection to blow out to 317 to 221, with Florida and North Carolina now in her column. Still absent from it, by the barest of margins, is Nevada, where the Democrats have been greatly buoyed by the pattern of early voting turnout, with one noted local observer all but calling the state for Clinton. This has led to suggestions that pollsters have been coming in low for Clinton across the board by underestimating turnout among Hispanics. The Poll Bludger