Tuesday, 1 November 2016

Trump 45, Clinton 47.4 - Bludgertrack (Australia)


It now appears that the US presidential race has tightened considerably, with the Bludgertrack aggregate currently predicting Clinton on 272 and Trump 257.

How the fuck a sexual predator would come back like that is beyond me and beyond stupid on the part of those in the US planning on voting for him. 

In any case my feeling is that he's too far behind to come back and win.
The latest reading of my presidential poll tracker is rather a lot different from the last, which is about half due to a very substantial shift in the polls in Donald Trump’s favour since the beginning of last week, and half due to me changing what had been a very conservative smoothing parameter that was ironing out short-term volatility, including the recent turn to Trump. It so happens that Trump is now credited with narrow leads in most of the swing states, such that Clinton’s now modest lead on national voting intention is projected as an extremely tight outcome in the electoral college of Clinton 272, Trump 257. It wouldn’t surprise me if the model was overshooting in its present reading of the move back to Trump, which can be a difficulty when sharp reversals occur, but we should get more clarity on that score over the coming days. Poll Bludger