Thursday, 14 July 2016

Turrnbull is facing the near impossible to govern

Technically Turnbull has won the election, but as far as achieving the goals he set out by having the election he has failed abysmally. 

Firstly he wanted the senate to become a bunch of Lieberal yes men. Terrible having to negotiate with those pesky cross benchers you know! Just everyone say yes and lets get on with fucking the workers over the bonnet of our Lieberal BMW! However last senate which was so annoying for him had 6 cross benchers. Looks like this one is going to have maybe ten, including that loony tunes Pauline Pantsdown Hansen. 
For the government, none of the permutations are attractive. Legislation with ALP support will pass, but beyond that the government will need to negotiate with several groupings, including Xenophon, Lambie, One Nation and the Greens.

If you hadn’t realised it yet, Pauline Hanson will be a key player in the new Senate. If One Nation ends up with two or even three senators the government will need her in order to pass many bills. But she won’t have the balance of power: no-one will, although the Greens will come close should they secure nine senators.

Whatever happens, one thing is clear: many Coalition laws will die in the Senate. Success will depend on a combination of subtle tactics and skilful negotiation, neither of which have been hallmarks of Malcolm Turnbull’s political career so far. New Matilda
Nice job there Mal. 

There is also the slight issue of the slimmest of majorities in the House of Representatives. There are a number of things that can go wrong there at any moment.
But a majority of one or two is perilously thin. The government needs to find a speaker for the House. If it continues with Tony Smith, a Liberal, then that immediately subtracts a vote. Many votes in the House will thus be close-run things. Crucial legislation will require every single Coalition member to turn up for the vote.

And things can go wrong. MPs can get sick. Or they might be engulfed by scandal, like Craig Thomson was in the Gillard years. Sadly, politicians do die in office – Western Australian Liberal MP Don Randall had a fatal heart attack last year. With a small majority, Turnbull will need to husband every vote. That raises the heat on his government right from the beginning. New Matilda
And then there's that festering marriage equality issue. The one the Lieberals are too scared to touch with a conscience vote. The poor dears don't seem to have a conscience as far as love goes you know. And all that terrible persecution they suffer! The humanity!
The marriage equality plebiscite is potentially explosive. This is an issue that threatens to split the Liberal party room right down the middle. Some conservatives will simply never vote for same-sex marriage, whatever the views of the electorate. 

The plebiscite, should it be held, will be deeply divisive. It will stir up untold animosities in Australian society. Much of this anger will rebound on the Prime Minister. He is, after all, the man in charge. New Matilda
Well if they're going to politicise the love David and I have for each other, at least we can have the satisfaction of seeing the politics explode in their faces :) 

BTW, polling shows 51% of Australians think there'll be another election within 12 months. Indeed, Shorten is officially staying in permanent election mode.