Thursday, 23 June 2016

Huge swings to Labor in NSW marginal seats - including bellwether Eden-Monaro


Of the 6 marginals polled by ReachTell only one is presently held by Labor, however all 6 polled now appear to be in Labor's camp, taking 5 seats off the Lieberals. These are really big swings:


New South Wales Teachers Federation

Most notably is Eden-Monaro the famous Bellwether seat. In the last 17 federal elections Eden-Monaro has always gone to the gov that won office. It's presently held by the Lieberals on a margin of 2.9%:
Eden-Monaro (Liberal 2.9%): In a poll of 636 respondents in the famous bellwether electorate in the state’s south-eastern corner, Labor’s Mike Kelly has a commanding lead of 55-45, or 54.0-46.0 on previous election preferences. Primary votes are Liberal 40.4%, Labor 37.5%, Greens 14.8% and others 7.3%. A similar poll for the Australian Education Union on June 18 produced much the same result. Poll Bludger
Voting polling booth 2013 election
Reasons for the swing are being put down to a long grass roots campaign by the NSW Teachers Federation (who commissioned the poll) on the federal Gonski reforms that the Lieberals have refused to fund into the future as they said they would in the 2013 election. Not long after taking office whining Pyne arrogantly declared Gonski was a mess; this after years of careful research and consultation.
The results show a sharp shift in voter sentiment towards candidates and parties that are backing the continuation of Gonski schools funding. 

"These seats in NSW have been the target of a long-term campaign by community groups, parents, principals and teachers in support of the continuation of the Gonski funding reforms,” said NSW Teachers Federation President Maurie Mulheron. 

“And it’s clear from the polling that education is an election issue that parents are very concerned about and we are calling on them to vote for candidates who are committed to funding the full Gonski agreement,” Mr Mulheron said. 

“We are disappointed that Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has turned his back on education by refusing to fund Gonski.” 

Mr Mulheron said voters had a clear choice this election about which parties valued education. 

“The education community has been running radio, television, print advertising and billboards in each of these marginal electorates. We have also been touring Gonski mobile billboards through these electorates to remind parents and voters what students will lose if Gonski funding is brought to a premature end.” NSW Teachers Federation
Lieberal chooks coming home to roost? 

Hats off to the New South Wales Teachers Federation :)