Monday, 27 June 2016

My prediction for election victory June 2nd - The Senate


Turbull's whole reason for going to this election in the first place was to get a more friendly senate dominated by the major parties and get his fascist ABCC legislation through to clobber the building unions. Alas for him it appears he has well and truly shot himself in the foot in that regard. The senate looks very much like being even more of a house of review than it was before. 

That pesky thing called democracy will fuck up either party that gains office. Turnbull already knows this, and has gone on an extraordinary attack on the senate independents telling voters not to vote for them as it will be chaos.
Turnbull described a vote for independents as “a roll of the dice” and specifically urged people not to vote for senators Jacqui Lambie, Nick Xenophon, Glenn Lazarus and the Queensland Senate candidate Pauline Hanson.

The prime minister and the treasurer urged a vote for stability, particularly after the UK decision to leave the European Union.

But polling has showed Lambie could win two Senate spots in Tasmania at the expense of the Liberal tourism minister, Richard Colbeck. Lambie’s running mate is the Devonport mayor, Steve Martin.

Xenophon’s party, the Nick Xenophon Team, could pick up a swag of lower-house seats in South Australia, including Mayo, Grey, Boothby and Barker as well as a number of seats in the Senate in a double-dissolution election designed to clear out the Senate crossbenchers. The Guardian
It's hardly likely that voters are going to listen to him. I said at the very start of this campaign that Australians are loath to give a gov control of both houses of parliament. Last time that happened we got Howard's extreme WorkChoices that clobbered workers left, right and centre. Does Turnbull honestly think that we'll give his clown show the same power again? What delusional arrogance! 

Needless to say we will not. 

More insight into the likely outcome of the new senate form the AFR, with neither major party having a senate majority and having to rely on the Greens and independents to pass any legislation:
An analysis by The Australia Institute of the major published opinion polls and backed by ABC election expert Antony Green show that both a Labor and a Coalition government will struggle to get its legislation through the Senate. 

In essence, both major parties will have to take some unlikely bedfellows if they are to govern for the next three years. 

The current best estimates of the Senate make-up put the Coalition at 32 spots, Labor 26, and the Greens 9. If the eight Senate crossbenchers from the 2013 election was a chaotic experience, polling currently shows we're headed for nine crossbenchers including up to six from the Nick Xenophon team. 

With 39 votes needed to pass legislation, the Coalition will have to get the support of either Labor, the Greens or seven members of the crossbench including the Xenophon bloc. 

Labor faces an even more daunting task if it wins the election. On every occasion it is challenged by Coalition senators, it would need the help of the Greens and four of the crossbenchers. Australian Financial Review
With the most recent polls pointing to perhaps a narrow Lieberal win in the lower house this Saturday, we can rest assured their power will be severely limited.